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Monday, September 29, 2008

Pretty much only rain from Kyle

Maine rainfall 9-26 to 9-29
Heaviest band missed us, not by much--we got about 3 inches (7.5 cm)

Kyle was a dud here. Not so much for Nova Scotia where it made landfall near Yarmouth as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday night with sustained 120 km/hr winds. In Bangor, we did not even have a gust above 20 km/hr.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Track is more easterly, towards Nova Scotia

Kyle cone, noon Sunday
Less impact for Maine

Tropical Storm Wind Warning
HURRICANE KYLE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1139 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...

.AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO OUR AREA...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU MAINE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MEZ011-015>017-032-290800-/O.CON.KCAR.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080929T0800Z/
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK- CENTRAL WASHINGTON-NORTHERN WASHINGTON
1139 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUED AN UPDATE ON HURRICANE KYLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATED FORECAST. KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT EAST OF EASTPORT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHEAST MAINE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE THE FOLLOWING PRECAUTIONS BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVE. BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES...CHECK FOR BATTERIES OR OTHER POWER SOURCES. SECURE LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE ITEMS.

...WINDS...

AS KYLE NEARS LAND FALL TODAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF KYLE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING...TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE 4 TO 6 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AFTER 2 PM EDT.

$$

NORCROSS/STUREY
So the tropical storm warning remains in effect and we're still in for 40 mph wind and a bunch more rain. But it does look like a lot of the heaviest stuff is swinging east.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Yep, a hurricane now

Kyle tropical-storm-force probabilities
Tropical-storm-force probability cone, Bangor over 50%

Probability table
Scary table, 1% Kyle will be Category 3 at landfall, and 45% a Category 1 hurricane

Hurricane Watch
HURRICANE KYLE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
538 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE EXPECTED TO IMPACT DOWNEAST MAINE...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA... AND FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM... SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... NEW BRUNSWICK... NOVA SCOTIA... AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
Maine has not had a hurricane since Bob in August 1991. I missed that because I was in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area in Minnesota at the time. Where I lived then, Portland, received 9 inches of rain. Huge trees came down in my neighborhood. But my cauliflowers grew to enormous size that year!
Official hurricane and tropical storm watch up for Maine

Kyle track as of Sat. Sep. 27 11am
Westward swing

The predicted track is further west than what was posted late Thursday. The probability of tropical storm wind speed (sustained 50+ mph) went to 50% from 5% for us. Furthermore, this slightly ominous watch--mentioning "HURRICANE" for the coast from Stonington to Eastport--just went up at 11am today:

Tropical Storm Wind Watch
TROPICAL STORM KYLE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1142 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE EXPECTED TO IMPACT DOWNEAST MAINE...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 635 MILES... 1025 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MEZ011-015>017-032-281545-/O.NEW.KCAR.TI.A.0001.080927T1542Z-080929T0200Z/
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-NORTHERN WASHINGTON
1142 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHEAST MAINE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST TO INCLUDE THE CITIES OF BANGOR...ORONO...OLD TOWN...LINCOLN AND...CALAIS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE THE FOLLOWING PRECAUTIONS BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVE. BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES...CHECK FOR BATTERIES OR OTHER POWER SOURCES. SECURE LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE ITEMS.

...WINDS...

AS KYLE NEARS LAND FALL SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 4O TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 600 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

FOSTER/LERICOS/STUREY
Kyle can s___ my b___s.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Not in the mood

Kyle 3-day cone
Three-day track for potential tropical storm

It says 10% chance we'll have a sustained 60 mph wind Sunday. Enjoyers of South Park will get this: Kyle can s___ my b___s.