Taking a closer look at supposed progress in Iraq
Pollsters and pundits tell us that voters? attention has shifted from the Iraq war to the economy. What does this mean for voters and for politicians seeking their votes? While there have been very real economic shocks in housing and fuel prices and there are signs of recession, it would be rash to conclude that Iraq no longer matters. It is still among the top two issues in most polls, and more than half the country believes the war is not worth fighting and that troops should be withdrawn.The media may be helping to create the shift in priorities they are reporting by conveying a questionable image of progress in the war and by ignoring the war?s economic impact. In the Feb. 12 BDN, Mark Brewer, assistant professor of political science at the University of Maine, is reported as saying that "Iraq, if not improving, is at least stabilizing."
Reporters regularly credit the troop surge with a reduction in violence during the last year. But a more detailed analysis yields a more skeptical conclusion. Violence has subsided to 2004-05 levels, but these are still alarmingly high, and it is not obvious how much this is due to the troop surge rather than to ethnic cleansing in Baghdad having been completed (with 4 million now displaced or in exile), to a fragile cease-fire by the Shiite Mahdi army, and to Sunni Awakening Councils turning against al-Qaida and stopping attacks in Anbar province. Still, more than 100 members of these councils have been assassinated recently in this "stabilizing" period, and the political "benchmarks" set by the Bush administration are not being met. A majority of Iraqis want the U.S. to withdraw.
This is stability? People will not lose concern about the war if they are adequately informed about the catastrophe it has been and continues to be, despite the surge.
Preoccupation with the relative priority of the war and the economy neglects the links between them. The war is a likely contributor to rising oil prices, one factor in the recession. Consistent underestimation of the costs of the war has kept the focus away from its economic impact. A Bush advisor was fired for "overestimating" the expected cost at $200 billion. Economist Robert Shapiro wrote in 2002 that "even if the war costs $300 billion that will still be less than one-fifth of the 10-year cost of the president?s tax cut and barely one third of the president?s other defense spending increases."
But six years later, the cost of the war is nearing $500 billion, and projections for the total cost are as high as $2 trillion when factoring in such costs as disability payments and higher oil prices, putting the cost of the war in the same order of magnitude as these other expenses that are more often cited as the main sources for our economic doldrums. Annual requested Iraq war spending ($156 billion) is at about the same level as Bush?s economic stimulus package (and undoubtedly more when the supplemental requests not included in the budget are added later in the year). Think what that amount could do if spent on productive infrastructure investments rather than on destruction. Think of what we have lost and will lose from the costs of the war.
According to David Leonhardt of the New York Times, $1.2 trillion, a conservative estimate of the eventual cost of the war if it continues, could pay for "an unprecedented public health care campaign" against cancer, heart disease, and global immunizable diseases; universal preschool; reconstruction for New Orleans; and genuine national security improvements such as better cargo screening and measures against nuclear proliferation. Or think what this money would mean if put back in the hands of taxpayers, who are now paying $4,100 per household annually for the war.
Beyond all price is the cost of the war in military and civilian casualties in the hundreds of thousands, refugees in the millions, a country shattered for a generation or more, a tremendous rage at the U.S. in the Arab and Muslim world, and in traditionally friendly countries a widely shared perception of the U.S. as a violent occupying power that will flaunt international law to control oil and other scarce resources.
Politicians and voters alike should reflect and recognize the war in Iraq as a major issue in the coming presidential and senatorial elections. And don?t wait for the elections. Express yourself at the Chain of Concern about the costs of the Iraq war at 1 p.m. Saturday, March 15, at the Paul Bunyan statue in Bass Park. For more information about this and related events, see http://everyvillage-me.us/2008/, or call the Peace and Justice Center at 942-9343.
Note: My friend Mike Howard of Bangor is a member of the Education Committee of the Peace and Justice Center of Eastern Maine.
Comments